Betting Against the Crowd

Crowds are misleading, both in their simplicity and in their complexity. On the one hand, they behave according to expected trends; on the other, they present sudden shifts and frantic, unexpected behavior. Therefore, “betting against the crowd,” whether in politics, sports, or finance, requires a deep understanding of the crowd’s dynamics. In this book, Prof. Neuman addresses this challenge by delving into the complexity of crowds. The book involves foundational issues and novel ideas, such as why crowds behave unexpectedly, why betting against the crowd is possible only in short time frames, why is it important to be attentive to suspicious signs that are indicative of the crowd’s behavior, and why the long tail of fatalities in armed conflicts leaves us surprised by blitz attacks of violent mobs. The book combines scientific knowledge, experiments, and accessible, often humorous, exposition. It can be read by anyone with a basic science education who seeks to understand crowds and how one can act within and against them.

Yair Neuman (b. 1968) is a polymath with expertise in interdisciplinary research where he draws on diverse disciplines to creatively address real-world and academic challenges. He is the head of the Functor Lab, at the Ben-Gurion University. Prof. Neuman has published numerous papers and ten academic books and was a visiting scholar/Prof. at M.I.T., University of Toronto, University of Oxford, and Weizmann Institute of Science. Beyond his purely academic work, he developed state-of-the-art algorithms for social and cognitive computing, such as those he developed for IARPA and currently developing for a DARPA project. His most recent books are: "How Small Social Systems Work: From Soccer Teams to Jazz Trios and Families" (Springer), "How to Find a Needle in a Haystack: From Solo Perpetrators to the Insider Threat" (Chaman & Hall/CRC Press), and "Using AI for Dialoguing with Texts" (Routledge).