The Model Thinker

From the stock market to covid-19, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models-from linear regression to random walks and far beyond-that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. Now culminating in an examination of how to use the multi-model approach to think about pandemics like covid-19, The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

"A hands-on reference for the working data scientist, The Model Thinker challenges us to consider that the historical methods we have used for data analysis are no longer adequate given the complexity of today's world....What has given this book a place in my permanent library is its deep dives into dozens of models. Equations and the diagrams are here, but so are applications."--Carol Wells, Inside Big Data: Your Source for Machine Learning, "A tremendously significant book embracing a creative, innovative approach for thinking about the complex mechanisms of social and natural phenomena"--S-T. Kim, North Carolina A&T State University, Choice, "An original and thought-provoking book, and a challenging one for a one-model thinker like myself. Brace yourself for an entirely new perspective."--Daron Acemoglu, professor of economics at MIT and co-author of Why Nations Fail, "Page explains the value of applying several models to a single problem, and then provides a conceptual toolkit for doing so. His book is a labor of love."--Art Friedman, co-author of Quantum Mechanics , "Scott Page's The Model Thinker is a deeper dive into the theory of mental models and the math behind them. Page is a professor at the University of Michigan, and his book explores mental models in a wonderful way."--Tomasz Tunguz

Scott E. Page is the Leonid Hurwicz Collegiate Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics at the University of Michigan and an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute.