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Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling
Focusing on the physics of the catastrophe process and addressed directly to advanced students, this innovative textbook quantifies dozens of perils, both natural and man-made, and covers the latest developments in catastrophe modelling. Combining basic statistics, applied physics, natural and environmental sciences, civil engineering, and psychology, the text remains at an introductory level, focusing on fundamental concepts for a comprehensive understanding of catastrophe phenomenology and risk quantification. A broad spectrum of perils are covered, including geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological, extraterrestrial, technological and socio-economic, as well as events caused by domino effects and global warming. Following industry standards, the text provides the necessary tools to develop a CAT model from hazard to loss assessment. Online resources include a CAT risk model starter-kit and a CAT risk modelling 'sandbox' with Python Jupyter tutorial. Every process, described by equations, (pseudo)codes and illustrations, is fully reproducible, allowing students to solidify knowledge through practice.
R 6,262.32
Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling
Focusing on the physics of the catastrophe process and addressed directly to advanced students, this innovative textbook quantifies dozens of perils, both natural and man-made, and covers the latest developments in catastrophe modelling. Combining basic statistics, applied physics, natural and environmental sciences, civil engineering, and psychology, the text remains at an introductory level, focusing on fundamental concepts for a comprehensive understanding of catastrophe phenomenology and risk quantification. A broad spectrum of perils are covered, including geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological, extraterrestrial, technological and socio-economic, as well as events caused by domino effects and global warming. Following industry standards, the text provides the necessary tools to develop a CAT model from hazard to loss assessment. Online resources include a CAT risk model starter-kit and a CAT risk modelling 'sandbox' with Python Jupyter tutorial. Every process, described by equations, (pseudo)codes and illustrations, is fully reproducible, allowing students to solidify knowledge through practice.
R 2,513.00
Catastrophe Modeling
Based on the research that has been conducted at Wharton Risk Management Center over the past five years on catastrophic risk.Covers a hot topic in the light of recent terroristic activities and nature catastrophes.Develops risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters.Provides glossary of definitions and terms used throughout the book.
R 8,179.57
Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling
Efficient and equitable policies for managing disaster risks and adapting to global environmental change are critically dependent on development of robust options supported by integrated modeling. The book is based on research and state-of-the art models developed at IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and within its cooperation network. It addresses the methodological complexities of assessing disaster risks, which call for stochastic simulation, optimization methods and economic modeling. Furthermore, it describes policy frameworks for integrated disaster risk management, including stakeholder participation facilitated by user-interactive decision-support tools. Applications and results are presented for a number of case studies at different problem scales and in different socio-economic contexts, and their implications for loss sharing policies and economic development are discussed. Among others, the book presents studies for insurance policies for earthquakes in the Tuscany region in Italy and flood risk in the Tisza river basin in Hungary. Further, it investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on development and possible financial coping strategies; and applications are shown for selected South Asian countries. The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involved with catastrophe risk management and risk mitigation policies.
R 4,014.47
Risiko, Katastrophen und Resilienz
Wöchentlich gibt es neue Meldungen über Krisen und Katastrophen weltweit. Einige der Risiken und inzwischen auch der Ereignisse überschlagen sich und man hat es in einigen Regionen zum Beispiel gleichzeitig mit einem Hochwasser, einer Pandemie und einer Bedrohung von Lieferketten durch einen fernen Krieg zu tun. Diese multiplen Krisen stellen die Gesellschaft vor große Herausforderungen. Während Einzelne aufgrund der Vielzahl dieser Vorfälle, deren Fremdheit und Komplexität zunehmend abschalten, bedarf es auf der anderen Seite Menschen, die sich sowohl in der Praxis als auch in der Forschung damit beschäftigen. Dass sich Vorsorge nicht nur beim Klimawandel, sondern auch bei Lieferkettenabhängigkeiten der Kritischen Infrastruktur oder Notfalleinsätzen lohnt, ist eigentlich offensichtlich. Es mangelt leider oft an der Umsetzung von Maßnahmen, gerade dann, je länger ein aufsehenerregendes Ereignis zurückliegt.Dieses Buch bietet allen Interessierten einen Einstieg in das Thema der Risiko-, Katastrophen- und Resilienzforschung. Es stellt eine schrittweise Anleitung für Risiko- und Verwundbarkeitsanalysen sowie Konzepte für Resilienz dar und illustriert anhand von Fallstudien, insbesondere im Bereich des Hochwasserrisikos. Darüber hinaus werden erstmals zahlreiche theoretische Rahmenwerke aus dem Englischen ins Deutsche übertragen und präsentiert. Dies eröffnet Ihnen einen breiteren Zugang zu internationalen Forschungsergebnissen. Ein besonderer Fokus liegt dabei auf kritischen Infrastrukturen im Bevölkerungsschutz und Geographischen Informationssystemen und deren Anwendung im Katastrophen-Management.Abgerundet wird das Buch durch Ausblicke auf noch zu entwickelnde spezielle Methoden, um die Risiko- und Resilienzforschung stärker mit großen gesellschaftlichen Themen wie Sicherheit, Nachhaltigkeit und Daseinsvorsorge zu verknüpfen. Warum begeistern sich Menschen aus Disziplinen wie den Geowissenschaften, dem Rettungsingenieurwesen, der Stadt- und Regionalplanung und vielen anderen für dieses Thema? Dieses Buch bietet Einblicke in ihre Motivation und zeigt, wie vielfältig und wichtig die Forschung auf diesem Gebiet ist.
R 1,392.00
R 520.00
Catastrophic Risk
Catastrophic risk is one of the most significant and challenging areas of corporate risk management. Analyze this risk for your company with Catastrophic Risk and make sure you have sufficient resources to absorb losses and avoid financial distress. The first comprehensive volume to address this topic from a financial perspective, this book is a guide to the worst financial risks threatening companies and industries today. Author Eric Banks begins with a consideration of ?catastrophe? and its mplications, looks at the state of actuarial and financial modelling of catastrophe risks, and discusses the creation of a risk management framework that will enable the efficient and secure management of exposure. Catastrophic Risk is essential reading if you're a corporate treasurer, CFO, or insurance/financial risk manager responsible for corporate risk management. Order your copy today.
R 4,071.00
Catastrophic Risk
Imagine that you are a corporate executive or small business owner in a midwestern city under water after weeks of extreme weather and drenching rainfall. Infrastructure has been damaged beyond repair, transportation arteries are closed, and your supply chain is broken. Families have been driven from homes, food and water are in short supply, and people are becoming unruly. Government agencies are not in a position to help. Declining revenue and partisan antipathy fueled by ideological differences have eroded confidence in government. The city is in total disrepair and unable to deliver desperately needed services. It is edging toward implosion and community leaders have turned to you for help. Catastrophe that would have been unthinkable in earlier times is a reality in a world coming out of pandemic and facing existential threats such as climate change, inequality and global conflict. Catastrophic Risk: Business Strategy for Managing Turbulence in a World at Risk challenges business to step up and assume a pivotal role with communities under stress due to prolonged exposure to risk. When powerful societal forces meet behavior that deters response to risk, the consequences of risk are exacerbated. The compounding effect of behavior on risk has opened an important role for business in mobilizing people and communities in times of crisis. It is a role that cannot be fulfilled, however, without purpose, strategy and plans sufficiently robust to overcome the threat of risk. To prosper in this environment, business will need to make a significant contribution to society as well as to deliver financial performance. For companies, this will mean involvement in community in ways that significantly depart from current practice. For leaders, it will mean new skills—contextual sensitivity, a greater understanding of behavioral dynamics, and enhanced capacity to relate to people on an emotive basis. This book is about the relationship between risk, societal forces and human behavior—a relationship informed by the sciences that is critically important for business. Its goal is two-fold: to bring catastrophic risk to the world of business and to further business engagement in service to the common good.
R 2,284.94
Mastering Catastrophic Risk
A profound and insightful look at how company leaders prepare for and respond to shocks and crises that threaten their business. Successful firms strategically manage and are more accurate in their assessment of large-scale risks. Doing so is increasingly challenging given the pace of change, whether financial, technological, regulatory, or environmental. Mastering Catastrophic Risk provides real-world practical insights into how large companies are responding to this new reality and develops a framework for smarter thinking about events that can damage a business. As leading authorities on risk management, strategy, and company leadership, Howard Kunreuther and Michael Useem take us on a groundbreaking tour of firms' decision making process. They demonstrate how improving readiness for and resilience against future shocks is now an integral part of company strategy. Using the "DISRUPT" model they have developed, they highlight the seven primary Drivers of disruption: Interdependencies increase exposure;Short-term focus results in limited vision; Regulations require change and constrain opportunities; Urbanization increases the costs of disasters; Probabilities of disasters have increased; and Transparency has enhanced public awareness of problems and impacts on firms' reputations. Some disruptions can be anticipated, while others arrive without warning. Their onset stresses decision makers, impairs company operations, and may even put the enterprise at risk. The bottom-line: business leaders and their governing boards face ever more challenging disruptions and must be ever more on guard. If your company is hit tomorrow, will it bounce back, or drown?
R 1,008.45
Risk Modelling in General Insurance
Knowledge of risk models and the assessment of risk is a fundamental part of the training of actuaries and all who are involved in financial, pensions and insurance mathematics. This book provides students and others with a firm foundation in a wide range of statistical and probabilistic methods for the modelling of risk, including short-term risk modelling, model-based pricing, risk-sharing, ruin theory and credibility. It covers much of the international syllabuses for professional actuarial examinations in risk models, but goes into further depth, with worked examples, exercises and detailed case studies. The authors also use the statistical package R to demonstrate how simple code and functions can be used profitably in an actuarial context. The authors' engaging and pragmatic approach, balancing rigour and intuition and developed over many years of teaching the subject, makes this book ideal for self-study or for students taking courses in risk modelling.
R 2,893.47
Introduction to Catastrophe Theory
Almost every scientist has heard of catastrophe theory and knows that there has been a considerable amount of controversy surrounding it. Yet comparatively few know anything more about it than they may have read in an article written for the general public. The aim of this book is to make it possible for anyone with a comparatively modest background in mathematics - no more than is usually included in a first year university course for students not specialising in the subject - to understand the theory well enough to follow the arguments in papers in which it is used and, if the occasion arises, to use it. Over half the book is devoted to applications, partly because it is not possible yet for the mathematician applying catastrophe theory to separate the analysis from the original problem. Most of these examples are drawn from the biological sciences, partly because they are more easily understandable and partly because they give a better illustration of the distinctive nature of catastrophe theory. This controversial and intriguing book will find applications as a text and guide to theoretical biologists, and scientists generally who wish to learn more of a novel theory.
R 2,710.42
Catastrophic Risk
Imagine that you are a corporate executive or small business owner in a midwestern city under water after weeks of extreme weather and drenching rainfall. Infrastructure has been damaged beyond repair, transportation arteries are closed, and your supply chain is broken. Families have been driven from homes, food and water are in short supply, and people are becoming unruly. Government agencies are not in a position to help. Declining revenue and partisan antipathy fueled by ideological differences have eroded confidence in government. The city is in total disrepair and unable to deliver desperately needed services. It is edging toward implosion and community leaders have turned to you for help. Catastrophe that would have been unthinkable in earlier times is a reality in a world coming out of pandemic and facing existential threats such as climate change, inequality and global conflict. Catastrophic Risk: Business Strategy for Managing Turbulence in a World at Risk challenges business to step up and assume a pivotal role with communities under stress due to prolonged exposure to risk. When powerful societal forces meet behavior that deters response to risk, the consequences of risk are exacerbated. The compounding effect of behavior on risk has opened an important role for business in mobilizing people and communities in times of crisis. It is a role that cannot be fulfilled, however, without purpose, strategy and plans sufficiently robust to overcome the threat of risk. To prosper in this environment, business will need to make a significant contribution to society as well as to deliver financial performance. For companies, this will mean involvement in community in ways that significantly depart from current practice. For leaders, it will mean new skills—contextual sensitivity, a greater understanding of behavioral dynamics, and enhanced capacity to relate to people on an emotive basis. This book is about the relationship between risk, societal forces and human behavior—a relationship informed by the sciences that is critically important for business. Its goal is two-fold: to bring catastrophic risk to the world of business and to further business engagement in service to the common good.
R 9,335.16
Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience
This book presents a broad survey of models for critical and catastrophic phenomena in the geosciences, with strong emphasis on earthquakes. It assumes the perspective of statistical physics, which provides the theoretical frame for dealing with complex systems in general. This volume addresses graduate students wishing to specialize in the field and researchers working or interested in the field having a background in the physics, geosciences or applied mathematics.
R 2,015.00
R 1,044.47
Catastrophe
Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and culturalreasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among thekeys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.
R 1,460.92
R 1,046.82
Introduction to Catastrophe Theory
Almost every scientist has heard of catastrophe theory and knows that there has been a considerable amount of controversy surrounding it. Yet comparatively few know anything more about it than they may have read in an article written for the general public. The aim of this book is to make it possible for anyone with a comparatively modest background in mathematics - no more than is usually included in a first year university course for students not specialising in the subject - to understand the theory well enough to follow the arguments in papers in which it is used and, if the occasion arises, to use it. Over half the book is devoted to applications, partly because it is not possible yet for the mathematician applying catastrophe theory to separate the analysis from the original problem. Most of these examples are drawn from the biological sciences, partly because they are more easily understandable and partly because they give a better illustration of the distinctive nature of catastrophe theory. This controversial and intriguing book will find applications as a text and guide to theoretical biologists, and scientists generally who wish to learn more of a novel theory.
R 3,558.76
Mastering Catastrophic Risk
A profound and insightful look at how company leaders prepare for and respond to shocks and crises that threaten their business.Successful firms strategically manage and are more accurate in their assessment of large-scale risks. Doing so is increasingly challenging given the pace of change, whether financial, technological, regulatory, or environmental. Mastering Catastrophic Risk provides real-world practical insights into how large companies are responding to this new reality and develops a framework for smarter thinking about events that can damage a business.As leading authorities on risk management, strategy, and company leadership, Howard Kunreuther and Michael Useem take us on a groundbreaking tour of firms' decision making process. They demonstrate how improving readiness for and resilience against future shocks is now an integral part of company strategy. Using the "DISRUPT" model they have developed, they highlight the seven primary Drivers of disruption: Interdependencies increase exposure;Short-term focus results in limited vision; Regulations require change and constrain opportunities; Urbanization increases the costs of disasters; Probabilities of disasters have increased; and Transparency has enhanced public awareness of problems and impacts on firms' reputations. This updated paperback edition includes a new preface to addressthreats to business that have emerged or intensified in the past two years including existential threats like the coronavirus, self-inflicted calamities like the Wells Fargo customer account scandal, and natural disasters like the West Coast wildfires and hurricanes on the Atlantic.Some disruptions can be anticipated, while others arrive without warning. Their onset stresses decision makers, impairs company operations, and may even put the enterprise at risk. The bottom-line: business leaders and their governing boards face ever more challenging disruptions and must be ever more on guard. If your company is hit tomorrow, will it bounce back, or drown?
R 1,146.39
R 1,819.98
SCIENCE OF SURPRISING CATASTROPHES
Surprise is a basic human response. This unique book on the science of surprising catastrophes, written to advance public understanding, is interdisciplinary, combining psychological sciences with physical sciences. Drawing on the pioneering neuroscientific research on the linkage between imagination and memory, most notable in the 2009 PhD dissertation of Nobel Laureate, Sir Demis Hassabis, we now appreciate how important memory of the past is for imagination of the future. Most catastrophes have happened before, or almost happened before, or might have done.Surprise can be mitigated by exploring the realm of possible catastrophic outcomes using a term drawn from cognitive psychology: the downward counterfactual. This term, which should be introduced in any risk 101 course, is an alternative realization of the past, where things turned for the worse. This concept is universal in its applicability, rather like the proverbial Black Swan, which may often be discovered through exploring downward counterfactuals of historical events. This book spans a broad vista of surprising catastrophes, covering earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and landslides, global pandemics, financial market collapses, terrorism, cyberattacks, solar storms, adverse impacts of artificial intelligence, and species extinctions. Especially relevant in 2026, the book also covers conflicts and geopolitical ruptures.
R 1,393.00
R 845.95
Global Catastrophic Risks
A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again.In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.
R 1,392.00
Advances in Credit Risk Modelling and Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction
The field of credit risk and corporate bankruptcy prediction has gained considerable momentum following the collapse of many large corporations around the world, and more recently through the sub-prime scandal in the United States. This book provides a thorough compendium of the different modelling approaches available in the field, including several new techniques that extend the horizons of future research and practice. Topics covered include probit models (in particular bivariate probit modelling), advanced logistic regression models (in particular mixed logit, nested logit and latent class models), survival analysis models, non-parametric techniques (particularly neural networks and recursive partitioning models), structural models and reduced form (intensity) modelling. Models and techniques are illustrated with empirical examples and are accompanied by a careful explanation of model derivation issues. This practical and empirically-based approach makes the book an ideal resource for all those concerned with credit risk and corporate bankruptcy, including academics, practitioners and regulators.
R 4,995.41
Introduction to International Disaster Management
Disaster management is a vibrant and growing field, driven by government spending in the wake of terrorist attacks and environmental debacles, as well as private-sector hiring of risk managers and emergency planners. An ever-increasing number of practicing professionals needs a reference that can provide a solid foundation in ALL major phases of supervision – mitigation, preparedness, response, communications, and recovery. As climate change leads to further costly catastrophes and as countries around the world continue to struggle with terrorism, the demand for solutions will only grow. This revised edition of Coppola’s revered resource meets said demand head-on with more focused, current, thoughtfully analyzed, and effective approaches to disaster relief.
R 2,353.00
Politics of Catastrophe
This book argues that catastrophe is a particular way of governing future events – such as terrorism, climate change or pandemics – which we cannot predict but which may strike suddenly, without warning, and cause irreversible damage.At a time where catastrophe increasingly functions as a signifier of our future, imaginaries of pending doom have fostered new modes of anticipatory knowledge and redeployed existing ones. Although it shares many similarities with crises, disasters, risks and other disruptive incidents, this book claims that catastrophes also bring out the very limits of knowledge and management. The politics of catastrophe is turned towards an unknown future, which must be imagined and inhabited in order to be made palpable, knowable and actionable. Politics of Catastrophe critically assesses the effects of these new practices of knowing and governing catastrophes to come and challenges the reader to think about the possibility of an alternative politics of catastrophe.This book will be of interest to students of critical security studies, risk theory, political theory and International Relations in general.
R 9,299.24
Catastrophe Insurance
1. THE PROBLEM OF CATASTROPHE RISK The risk of large losses from natural disasters in the U.S. has significantly increased in recent years, straining private insurance markets and creating troublesome problems for disaster-prone areas. The threat of mega-catastrophes resulting from intense hurricanes or earthquakes striking major population centers has dramatically altered the insurance environment. Estimates of probable maximum losses (PMLs) to insurers from a mega catastrophe striking the U.S. range up to $100 billion depending on the location and intensity of the event (Applied Insurance Research, 2001).1 A severe disaster could have a significant financial impact on the industry (Cummins, Doherty, and Lo, 2002; Insurance Services Office, 1996a). Estimates of industry gross losses from the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 range from $30 billion to $50 billion, and the attack's effect on insurance markets underscores the need to understand the dynamics of the supply of and the demand for insurance against extreme events, including natural disasters. Increased catastrophe risk poses difficult challenges for insurers, reinsurers, property owners and public officials (Kleindorfer and Kunreuther, 1999). The fundamental dilemma concerns insurers' ability to handle low-probability, high-consequence (LPHC) events, which generates a host of interrelated issues with respect to how the risk of such events are 1 These probable maximum loss (PML) estimates are based on a SOD-year "return" period.
R 3,015.28
Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrosystem Engineering
Water engineers require knowledge of stochastic, frequency concepts, uncertainty analysis, risk assessment, and the processes that predict unexpected events.This book presents the basics of stochastic, risk and uncertainty analysis, and random sampling techniques in conjunction with straightforward examples which are solved step by step. In addition, appropriate Excel functions are included as an alternative to solve the examples, and two real case studies is presented in the last chapters of book.
R 3,577.12
Introduction to Value-at-Risk
The value-at-risk measurement methodology is a widely-used tool in financial market risk management. The fifth edition of Professor Moorad Choudhry’s benchmark reference text An Introduction to Value-at-Risk offers an accessible and reader-friendly look at the concept of VaR and its different estimation methods, and is aimed specifically at newcomers to the market or those unfamiliar with modern risk management practices. The author capitalises on his experience in the financial markets to present this concise yet in-depth coverage of VaR, set in the context of risk management as a whole. Topics covered include: Defining value-at-riskVariance-covariance methodologyPortfolio VaRCredit risk and credit VaRStressed VaRCritique and VaR during crisis Topics are illustrated with Bloomberg screens, worked examples and exercises. Related issues such as statistics, volatility and correlation are also introduced as necessary background for students and practitioners. This is essential reading for all those who require an introduction to financial market risk management and risk measurement techniques. Foreword by Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance, University of Sussex.
R 2,443.00
Quantitative Modeling of Operational Risk in Finance and Banking Using Possibility Theory
This book offers a comprehensive guide to the modelling of operational risk using possibility theory. It provides a set of methods for measuring operational risks under a certain degree of vagueness and impreciseness, as encountered in real-life data. It shows how possibility theory and indeterminate uncertainty-encompassing degrees of belief can be applied in analysing the risk function, and describes the parametric g-and-h distribution associated with extreme value theory as an interesting candidate in this regard. The book offers a complete assessment of fuzzy methods for determining both value at risk (VaR) and subjective value at risk (SVaR), together with a stability estimation of VaR and SVaR. Based on the simulation studies and case studies reported on here, the possibilistic quantification of risk performs consistently better than the probabilistic model. Risk is evaluated by integrating two fuzzy techniques: the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy extension of techniques for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution. Because of its specialized content, it is primarily intended for postgraduates and researchers with a basic knowledge of algebra and calculus, and can be used as reference guide for research-level courses on fuzzy sets, possibility theory and mathematical finance. The book also offers a useful source of information for banking and finance professionals investigating different risk-related aspects.
R 3,700.12
Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice
The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications. The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in–depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include: Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges.Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide.In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques.The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author′s many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.
R 3,419.00
Credit Risk Modeling
Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand, and on a direct modeling of the default probability of issuers on the other. He offers insights that can be drawn from each approach and demonstrates that the distinction between the two approaches is not at all clear-cut. The book strikes a fruitful balance between quickly presenting the basic ideas of the models and offering enough detail so readers can derive and implement the models themselves. The discussion of the models and their limitations and five technical appendixes help readers expand and generalize the models themselves or to understand existing generalizations.The book emphasizes models for pricing as well as statistical techniques for estimating their parameters. Applications include rating-based modeling, modeling of dependent defaults, swap- and corporate-yield curve dynamics, credit default swaps, and collateralized debt obligations.
R 5,027.00
Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrosystem Engineering
Water engineers require knowledge of stochastic, frequency concepts, uncertainty analysis, risk assessment, and the processes that predict unexpected events.This book presents the basics of stochastic, risk and uncertainty analysis, and random sampling techniques in conjunction with straightforward examples which are solved step by step. In addition, appropriate Excel functions are included as an alternative to solve the examples, and two real case studies is presented in the last chapters of book.
R 3,380.84
R 3,603.00
Dam Breach Modelling and Risk Disposal
This proceedings book gathers contributions presented at the First International Conference on Embankment Dams (1st ICED, Beijing, 5–7 June 2020), which was the inaugural conference of the International Society of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE) Technical Committee TC210 on Embankment Dams. The contributions address five themes: (1) case histories on the failure of embankment dams and landslide dams; (2) dam failure process modelling; (3) soil mechanics for embankment dams; (4) dam risk assessment and management; and (5) monitoring, early warning and emergency response. These proceedings offer a unique resource that systematically presents recent dam breaching cases, their social impact, associated risk management strategies, and disposal methods for failed dams. It is an excellent reference guide for dam and levee engineers, flood safety officials, and emergency management agencies.
R 12,883.21
Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Optimization with R
A must have text for risk modelling and portfolio optimization using R. This book introduces the latest techniques advocated for measuring financial market risk and portfolio optimization, and provides a plethora of R code examples that enable the reader to replicate the results featured throughout the book. This edition has been extensively revised to include new topics on risk surfaces and probabilistic utility optimization as well as an extended introduction to R language. Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Optimization with R: Demonstrates techniques in modelling financial risks and applying portfolio optimization techniques as well as recent advances in the field.Introduces stylized facts, loss function and risk measures, conditional and unconditional modelling of risk; extreme value theory, generalized hyperbolic distribution, volatility modelling and concepts for capturing dependencies.Explores portfolio risk concepts and optimization with risk constraints.Is accompanied by a supporting website featuring examples and case studies in R.Includes updated list of R packages for enabling the reader to replicate the results in the book. Graduate and postgraduate students in finance, economics, risk management as well as practitioners in finance and portfolio optimization will find this book beneficial. It also serves well as an accompanying text in computer-lab classes and is therefore suitable for self-study.
R 3,743.00
Introduction to Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems
This book provides a self-contained review of all the relevant topics in probability theory. A software package called MAXIM, which runs on MATLAB, is made available for downloading. Vidyadhar G. Kulkarni is Professor of Operations Research at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
R 3,042.62
Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modelingAn expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear modelUpdated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systemsA new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
R 5,325.00
Modelling Extremal Events
"A reader's first impression on leafing through this book is of the large number of graphs and diagrams, used to illustrate shapes of distributions...and to show real data examples in various ways. A closer reading reveals a nice mix of theory and applications, with the copious graphical illustrations alluded to. Such a mixture is of course dear to the heart of the applied probabilist/statistician, and should impress even the most ardent theorists." --MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS
R 3,366.96
SCIENCE OF SURPRISING CATASTROPHES
Surprise is a basic human response. This unique book on the science of surprising catastrophes, written to advance public understanding, is interdisciplinary, combining psychological sciences with physical sciences. Drawing on the pioneering neuroscientific research on the linkage between imagination and memory, most notable in the 2009 PhD dissertation of Nobel Laureate, Sir Demis Hassabis, we now appreciate how important memory of the past is for imagination of the future. Most catastrophes have happened before, or almost happened before, or might have done.Surprise can be mitigated by exploring the realm of possible catastrophic outcomes using a term drawn from cognitive psychology: the downward counterfactual. This term, which should be introduced in any risk 101 course, is an alternative realization of the past, where things turned for the worse. This concept is universal in its applicability, rather like the proverbial Black Swan, which may often be discovered through exploring downward counterfactuals of historical events. This book spans a broad vista of surprising catastrophes, covering earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and landslides, global pandemics, financial market collapses, terrorism, cyberattacks, solar storms, adverse impacts of artificial intelligence, and species extinctions. Especially relevant in 2026, the book also covers conflicts and geopolitical ruptures.
R 3,590.00
