Population Matters

The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. Opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon.;This volume, based on a collection of papers that rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on contemporary analytical approaches, sheds light on demographic-economic relationships, and it provides policy conclusions. In particular, evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern - countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggests that changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as the Asian tigers did, realize extraordinary bursts in economic output.But such results are by no means assured: only when countries co-ordinate population policies with otherwise s

Provides a very valuable discussion, with detailed references, of the knotty methodological issues inherent in the demography-development debate. . . . Anyone concerned with how population change affects the development prospects of poor countries will profit from reading these essays.

Nancy Birdsall is President of the Center for Global Development and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where she directs the economic reform project. She was the Executive Vice President of the Inter-American Development Bank from 1993 until September 1998. She is the author of numerous publications on economic development issues. Her most recent work is on the causes and effects of inequality in a globalizing world.Allen C. Kelley is James B. Duke Professor of Economics, Duke University.Steven W. Sinding is Director-General of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, headquartered in London. He directs a global federation of 147 affiliates operating programmes in 180 countries, and six regional offices around the world. Prior to joing IPPF, Dr Sinding was Professor of Population and Family Health at the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, and Adjunct Professor of Public Policy in Columbia's School for International and PublicAffairs.