Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy

Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.

'Uncertainty is the one constant facing central bankers. In this fascinating discussion of monetary policy making under uncertainty, Otmar Issing and Vítor Gaspar expose the limitations of much academic thinking on the subject and show how the ECB's monetary strategy represents a pragmatic response to the problems thrown up by our inevitably imperfect knowledge of the economy.' Charles Bean, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Bank of England, ' … the book is commendable in its attempt to explain, through examples, the actual application of monetary policy and how real problems are tackled.' De Economist

Otmar Issing is a member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank. Vítor Gaspar is Special Advisor, Banco de Portugal. Oreste Tristani is Principal Economist, DG Research, European Central Bank. David Vestin is Economist, DG Research, European Central Bank.