Tools of Trust

How is it possible that economists generally fail to foresee recession, yet forecasting has never lost its appeal and importance? Using a combination of published scientific and technical literature, newspaper articles as well as archival material from thirty-three research sites in six countries, Tools of Trust looks for an answer to this question. It tells the history of business forecasting in the twentieth century, tracing the emergence and fundamental transformations of forecasting techniques and their role in economic and political decision-making. It investigates how the role of business forecasting has changed and how this has transformed economic and political decision-making. Offering a nuanced understanding of the crucial role forecasting plays in managing economic uncertainty, this book examines how unforeseen economic crises have paradoxically reinforced the importance of forecasting, turning it into an indispensable tool to reduce economic uncertainty and stabilize the capitalist order.

Laetitia Lenel is Professor of Economic History at the University of Duisburg-Essen. Her research brings together the study of economic knowledge practices and economic history. Among other topics, she investigates the history of business forecasting and how societies have grappled with economic turbulence. For her research, she has received the Humboldt Prize, the Johann Gustav Droysen Prize, the Friedrich Lütge Prize, and the Otto Hintze Prize, among others.