Missing the Mark

UNCOVERED: 1 in 4 EXAM GRADES IS WRONG 'An important contribution to our thinking.’ – Sixth Form Colleges Association 'An uncomfortable but important read.’ – Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference 'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book' – Higher Education Policy Institute Every summer one million GCSE and A-Level candidates receive results that define their school years and set them up for their life. But those results are gravely unreliable. In fact, about one grade in four in England is WRONG. That is 1.5 million grades every year. An A-Level grade B might have been an A, or even a C, had a different examiner marked the script. Similarly, a GCSE grade 7 might have received a grade 8 or a 6. For a decade, young people and their friends and families have been unable to grasp the full extent of this randomness. Now, in this definitive and easy to follow book, Dennis Sherwood explains why so many pupils receive final grades that don’t do them justice. And he suggests ways to regain trust, which apply to essay-based exams throughout the world. Reviews ‘Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* but ended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victim of this scandal. Sherwood’s work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.’ – Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust ‘Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding of grades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging manner and clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.’ – Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association ‘Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wants to answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about school exams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentation of statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missing the Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.’ – Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference ‘Missing a grade can result in university or college applications being rejected. Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: ‘Are grades reliable enough for the purposes they are supposed to serve?’ This book presents an insightful analysis of this important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the number of appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when exams were cancelled, why ‘real’ grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.’ – Huy Duong, parent ‘Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book – and then decide what to do about them.’ – Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy Institute Anyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employe

‘Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* but ended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victim of this scandal. Sherwood’s work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.’ – Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust ‘Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding of grades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging manner and clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.’ – Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association ‘Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wants to answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about school exams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentation of statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missing the Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.’ – Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference ‘Missing a grade can result in university or college applications being rejected. Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: ‘Are grades reliable enough for the purposes they are supposed to serve?’ This book presents an insightful analysis of this important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the number of appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when exams were cancelled, why ‘real’ grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.’ – Huy Duong, parent ‘Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book – and then decide what to do about them.’ – Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy Institute Anyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employers, teachers, parents and students, should read Dennis Sherwood's incisive analysis. His conclusions will have a profound impact on our idea of the accuracy, reliability and fairness of examinations. – Mike Larkin, Emeritus Professor Queen's University of Belfast and Total Equality For Students ‘Dennis provides a clear, step-by-step outline of what is going so terribly wrong and the easy ways to remedy this.’ – Ollie Green, A-level student

Dennis Sherwood is a management consultant with experience of solving complex problems. He has a Physics Masters from the University of Cambridge, an MPhil in Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry from Yale University and a PhD in biology from the University of California in San Diego. After being a consulting partner at Deloitte Haskins + Sells, and Coopers & Lybrand, he became an executive director at Goldman Sachs. He now runs his own business, The Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Company Limited, specialising in organisational creativity and innovation. He is author of 14 books.Dr Robin Bevan is Headteacher of Southend High School for Boys. He was National President of the National Education Union in 2020-21.